Regardless of condition, sales of homes in probate on the MLS net estates an average of $49,000 more than the next best option.
Personal representatives face multiple options for selling their loved one’s home, but there has traditionally been very little data to better inform their decision on which choice will ultimately benefit the estate and its heirs the most.
Maker Real Estate studied 1,325 probate deeds from the seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metro transferred between August 2022 and July 2023, creating the first study of its kind in our market.
Here’s what we found.
Methodology: MLS sales were identified using deed types typically associated with probate sales (personal representatives’ deed in most cases) via the NorthstarMLS system. Off-market and “wholesale” deeds were identified through public tax record searches for sales by or to LLCs and deed type. A total of 245 deeds for sales in the municipalities of Minneapolis and St. Paul were identified, along with 868 additional deeds from the seven-county metro area for other data in this report.
Where probate sales happen
There are 36 cities in the seven-county metro where 10 or more probate sales were recorded on the NorthstarMLS system from 8/1/2022-7/31/2023. Due to our methodology, there were likely more, but there is no consistent way to identify them. However, using keyword searches and deed transfer type, our analysis likely included most.
| City | Probate Sales | Percent of All Sales |
| Minneapolis | 115 | 2.6 |
| Saint Paul | 96 | 3.3 |
| Bloomington | 60 | 6.2 |
| Minnetonka | 32 | 4.6 |
| Coon Rapids | 31 | 4.2 |
| Plymouth | 27 | 2.5 |
| Apple Valley | 24 | 3.4 |
| Brooklyn Park | 23 | 2.6 |
| Burnsville | 23 | 3.0 |
| Richfield | 22 | 5.3 |
| Blaine | 21 | 1.9 |
| Maple Grove | 21 | 1.9 |
| Eagan | 19 | 2.6 |
| Edina | 19 | 2.6 |
| Roseville | 19 | 4.4 |
| St. Louis Park | 19 | 2.8 |
| Eden Prairie | 16 | 2.0 |
| Inver Grove Heights | 16 | 3.7 |
| Shoreview | 16 | 4.4 |
| Fridley | 15 | 4.4 |
| White Bear Lake | 15 | 5.1 |
| Maplewood | 14 | 3.1 |
| West St. Paul | 14 | 6.3 |
| Forest Lake | 12 | 4.3 |
| Lakeville | 12 | 1.0 |
| Savage | 12 | 3.0 |
| Columbia Heights | 11 | 4.3 |
| Cottage Grove | 11 | 1.6 |
| New Brighton | 11 | 5.2 |
| Stillwater | 11 | 3.7 |
| Andover | 10 | 2.4 |
| Farmington | 10 | 2.3 |
| Hastings | 10 | 3.1 |
| Mounds View | 10 | 8.5 |
| Prior Lake | 10 | 2.0 |
| South St. Paul | 10 | 4.3 |
How long homes in probate took to sell
Homes in probate in the top 36 cities in our market went under contract in an average of 25 days on market, but that doesn’t account for the time between going under contract with a buyer and closing. From the listing date to a closed sale averaged 58 days across all MLS probate sales.
Because contract dates are not recorded with deed transfers, there is no way to determine how long the entire process might take for an off-market or wholesale deal.
How wholesalers work
Many of the “cash for homes” investors reaching out to personal representatives are not actually looking to purchase the properties themselves, but rather to get the property under contract and then sell (or “assign”) the contract to the actual purchaser. In this situation, the wholesaler pockets the difference between the sale price agreed to by the personal representative and the final sale price to the actual buyer.
The median wholesale profit on deeds identified in Minneapolis and St. Paul was $41,500, with a range of $13,000 to $75,000, and the amount received by the estates was a median of $255,000, with a range of $112,000 to $415,000.
Wholesalers pitch their services as a way to avoid paying real estate commissions. However, in all of these deals, the profit pocketed by wholesalers was at least twice what those estates would have paid in commission at the typical 5 or 6 percent MLS sale rate had they sold for the price the wholesaler eventually received. Wholesalers rarely make any improvements to a property before assigning the contract.
An example of a wholesale deal
In December 2021, the owner of a split-entry single family home in Maple Grove passed away. His heirs signed a contract with a wholesaler for $240,000 and closed on the sale in August 2022. At closing, the wholesaler simultaneously assigned the contract to an investor for $295,000 and pocketed the $55,000 difference in the contract prices.
Direct sales to investors
In the probate sales analyzed, 122 of the sales were made directly to flip-and-sell investors, who purchase a home, renovate it and sell it within a year.
Like wholesalers, investors seek to purchase a home for the lowest possible price. However, unlike wholesalers, investors make improvements to the property after purchasing it and hold onto it for more than a day or two.
Of the deals identified, the median sales price paid to estates was $194,000, with a range of $50,000 to $480,000.
It is impossible to know how much the average flip-and-sell investor spent on renovations, but the median final sales price of these properties was $300,000, with a range of $79,900 to $810,500.
In short, the median gross profit was $106,000, and the median length of time between the purchase from the estate and post-renovation sale was 157 days.
Not only do estates net less in a direct sale to investors, compared to selling on the open market, but it has a detrimental effect on the overall housing market. Many of the homes sold to investors were cosmetically outdated but otherwise financeable and livable. By not listing these homes on the MLS, the number of possible buyers was limited, and when the homes finally WERE available on the MLS, they had been improved and marked up beyond the reach of many first-time home buyers and other buyers with lower budgets.
On-Market Sales of Homes in Probate
During the period analyzed, the highest net profit for estates (even accounting for commissions paid to real estate professionals) was obtained via an on-market sale via the MLS.
The median sales price for probate sales on the MLS during the period studied was $320,000. Even if the real estate professionals involved charged a typical commission of 5-6 percent, estates still netted more under this model.
Can you sell a home on the MLS as-is?
The short answer is yes, you can sell a property on the MLS in any condition.
Most of the probate sales contained in the study were sold “as is,” meaning sellers specified in the listing that they would not be making repairs to the property prior to closing.
In the second half of 2023, 9.93 percent of all sales on the MLS were as-is sales. Sellers received slightly less for these homes, on average, but they sold is the same amount of time (23.2 days on market for as-is sales vs. 23.4 days on market for all sales).
The median sales price for as-is sales for all of Ramsey County (which includes more than just probate sales) in the second half of 2023 was $265,000 vs. $315,000 for all sales.
Is there an estate sale “discount?”
The average home in probate will likely be more cosmetically outdated than its peers on market, as well as smaller and older. For that reason, the average probated home sells for less than the market average.
How much this “discount” is depends on the city. Where housing stock tends to be newer or there is widespread new construction, for example, the discount will be larger. Where housing stock is smaller and older in general, and where decedents may have owned homes in more desirable neighborhoods, however, the average home in probate may actually sell for more than its peers.
For example, there were 21 sales of homes in probate in Blaine during the period analyzed. Blaine is a fast-growing community dominated by new construction, so most of the homes sold in probate during the time period were smaller and older than the city average. For this reason, the average sales price of a home in probate in Blaine was 27.4 percent lower than the average of all sales in Blaine.
However, the 96 MLS-enabled probate sales in St. Paul over the same time period were more consistent with the average age and size of the city’s market as a whole, but because they accounted for a greater percentage of sales in some of the city’s more desirable neighborhoods, the overall average sales price for those homes was 20 percent higher than the city average.
| Type of Sale | Median Sales Price | Days on Market | Anticipated Commissions Paid | Expected Median Net to Estate |
| Wholesale | $255,000 | Unknown | $0 | $255,000 |
| Direct to Investor | $194,000 | Unknown | $0 | $194,000 |
| MLS sale | $320,000 | 25 | $16,000 | $304,000 |
Twin Cities Probate 